CATTLE MARKET OUTLOOK Fundamentals & Perspective --The Glass Can Be Half Full GLYNN T. TONSOR, PH.D. Professor, Dept. of Agriculture Economics, Kansas State University umes of beef (including trimmings with I hope each of us can pause, discon-Here in mid-December of 2025, feed-clear trade implications) per animal, and nect from external distractions, and take a er cattle in Kansas are selling for $400-stocker-feedlot-packer segments depen-moment to reflect, as there are a host of $700/head (varying by weight class) more dent on animal throughput will continue to blessings visible if one adopts a “glass is than last year (and $900/head higher than face physical capacity utilization pressure. half full” lens. December 2023). Meanwhile, the broader macroeco-Merry Christmas and Happy 2026 from Yet these mid-December price lev-nomic (interest rates, unemployment, and Little Apple! els put seller revenues $100-$300/head net financial sentiment of residents) and (again varying by class) below 2025 peak, trade policy environment will persist as mid-October levels. key consumer demand factors. As published in “In the Cattle Markets” Indeed, many cow-calf producers are Noteworthy here is the evolving role of on December 15, 2025, by Livestock going to have a strong year and perhaps GLP-1s as highlighted in recent research Marketing Information Center (www.LMIC. also wish (with the ever-favorable benefit (“GLP-1 Use and Protein Demand”) info). of hindsight) they locked in sales prices at with Drs. Bina and Richards using Meat a different time. [1] See details on the beef and Alas, all these statements can be true, Demand Monitor data. [1] even if frustrating in reflecting the nature In short, GLP-1 use is part of reduced pork checkoff-supported MDM project of 2025, and provide a classic “glass is meat price sensitivity that helps explain based at Kansas State University here half full vs half empty” framing opportunity. observed market behavior. Indeed, con-(https://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/ While demand fundamentals were sumer demand developments persist meat-demand/monthly-meat-de-unfortunately not acknowledged in most as fundamental and worthy of ongoing mand-monitor-survey-data) and this lat-elevated discussions of the sector as 2025 est MDM-supported research paper here assessment and elevated appreciation. progressed, indeed, the combination of As we enter the Christmas holiday (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ supply and demand fundamentals under-season, I wish all readers the best with article/pii/S0306919225002313). pins market dynamics. recognition of the true reason for the sea-As in every year and market, one can son. only identify price-quantity outcomes through intersec-Week of Week of Week of tions of demand and supply. THE MARKETS 12/12/25 12/5/25 12/13/24 This boring yet critical point all grades, live weight, $/cwt $228.19 $221.21 $194.31 must be better appreciated 5-Area Fed Steer going forward. all grades, dressed weight, $/cwt $353.62 $342.61 $303.44 Simply illustrated, there Choice Value, 600-900 lb., $/cwt $359.37 $364.27 $313.75 is much more to industry Boxed Beef Choice-Select Spread, $/cwt $13.53 $12.37 $33.46 price, quantity, and net eco-Montana 3-market, $/cwt $366.75 $359.29 $279.93 nomic viability than just the number of beef cows in the 700-800 lb. Feeder Steer Nebraska 7-market, $/cwt $380.52 $378.68 $286.64 national herd. Oklahoma 8-market, $/cwt $352.42 $340.38 $263.84 Turning to 2026, it Montana 3-market, $/cwt $447.35 $442.95 $338.08 seems likely we will start the year with a breeding herd similar in size to January 2025, with mixed interest in expansion, market-ready cattle will continue to pro-vide historically large vol-62 500-600 lb. Feeder Steer Nebraska 7-market, $/cwt Oklahoma 8-market, $/cwt Feed Grains Corn, Omaha, NE, $/bu (Thursday) DDGS, Nebraska, $/ton $474.38 $451.23 $4.33 $167.71 $474.90 $438.64 $4.32 $162.71 $348.68 $323.42 $4.39 $158.43 Data Source: USDA-AMS Market News as compiled by LMIC JANUARY 2026
Iowa Cattleman January 2026: Page-62
